2016年中國電力行業發展趨勢及盈利水平預測
時(shi)間:2019-01-16 10:36:00 閱(yue)讀:3544 整理:廣州市場調查公司
2020年,隨著(zhu)我(wo)國(guo)宏觀經濟仍(reng)處于底部調整,全社會用(yong)(yong)電量仍(reng)不會有大的(de)起色,2020年全社會用(yong)(yong)電量與今年基本持平。受去產能(neng)影響,第二(er)產業用(yong)(yong)電占比將(jiang)繼續回落。明年我(wo)國(guo)清潔能(neng)源(yuan)裝機(ji)仍(reng)快速增長(chang),全國(guo)電力供需形勢(shi)仍(reng)將(jiang)保持寬(kuan)松平衡(heng),全國(guo)機(ji)組利用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時預計為 3730小(xiao)時,火電利用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時降至 4015小(xiao)時。
一、中國電力需求預測
1、目前(qian)我(wo)國宏觀經濟正處于(yu)底部調整(zheng),增(zeng)(zeng)長速(su)度(du)由(you)過去的高速(su)換擋到(dao)(dao)中速(su)。2019 年(nian)(nian)(nian)前(qian)三(san)季度(du) GDP 同比增(zeng)(zeng)長6.64%。根(gen)據Wind 數據,全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)GDP增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)預計(ji)(ji)在 6.92%,2020 年(nian)(nian)(nian)GDP 同比增(zeng)(zeng)長率(lv)進一(yi)步下(xia)降(jiang)到(dao)(dao) 6.53%。從(cong)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)上看,1~10 月份,全(quan)(quan)國全(quan)(quan)社(she)會累(lei)計(ji)(ji)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)達到(dao)(dao) 45835 億千瓦時(shi),同比增(zeng)(zeng)長 0.7%,增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)環比下(xia)降(jiang),低于(yu)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)同期約 3.09個百分點(dian),表(biao)明經濟增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)下(xia)滑導致全(quan)(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)快速(su)下(xia)降(jiang)。我(wo)們預計(ji)(ji) 2019 年(nian)(nian)(nian)和2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)與(yu) 2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)持平,約為 55233億千瓦時(shi)。
從產(chan)(chan)業(ye)看,1-10月(yue)份,第(di)一(yi)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang) 879億千瓦(wa)時(shi),同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang) 3.0%,占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)為 1.9%;第(di)二(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang) 32858 億千瓦(wa)時(shi),同(tong)比(bi)下降 1.1%,占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)為 71.7%,對全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)貢(gong)獻(xian)率為-105.6%;第(di)三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang) 5959億千瓦(wa)時(shi),同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.1%,增(zeng)速(su)同(tong)比(bi)提高(gao)1.0個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分點(dian),占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)為13.0%對全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)貢(gong)獻(xian)率為 117.6%;城(cheng)鄉(xiang)居民生活(huo)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang) 6140 億千瓦(wa)時(shi),同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang) 4.6%,增(zeng)速(su)同(tong)比(bi)提高(gao) 2.9 個(ge)百(bai)(bai)分點(dian),占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)為 13.4%,對全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)貢(gong)獻(xian)率為 80.3%。可見第(di)二(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)是全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)需(xu)求不(bu)(bu)(bu)振(zhen)的(de)(de)主要原因,而(er)第(di)三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求一(yi)直保持較(jiao)為強勁的(de)(de)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)勢(shi)頭。 從第(di)三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)在全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)中的(de)(de)占(zhan)比(bi)來看,過去五年不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷(duan)提高(gao):2010 年為 10.73%,2011 年為 10.83%,2012 年為11.47%,2013年為11.79%,2014 年為 12.06%,今(jin)年前十個(ge)月(yue)為 13.00%。以上表(biao)明我國經濟結構(gou)不(bu)(bu)(bu)斷(duan)優(you)化,第(di)三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)開始占(zhan)據(ju)越來越重(zhong)(zhong)要的(de)(de)地(di)位。
2、截(jie)至 10 月(yue)底,全(quan)國(guo)(guo)6000千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)以上裝機(ji)容量(liang)達(da)到(dao)(dao) 139353萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)9.5%。其中:水(shui)電、火(huo)電、核電、風(feng)電裝機(ji)容量(liang)分(fen)別達(da)到(dao)(dao) 27456、95260、2414、11061萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),累(lei)計(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速分(fen)別為 6.5%、7.0%、35.8%、25.6%。 2019 年,電力(li)(li)裝機(ji)預計(ji)達(da) 14.6 億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速小幅(fu)回(hui)落(luo)。2019 年全(quan)國(guo)(guo)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)發電裝機(ji)容量(liang)約 1 億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)左右,全(quan)國(guo)(guo)發電裝機(ji)容量(liang)將達(da)到(dao)(dao) 14.6 億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)左右。新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)水(shui)電 1400 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),火(huo)電5000 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),核電800 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa), 風(feng)電1700萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa), 太(tai)陽能發電 900萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),全(quan)國(guo)(guo)裝機(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速為 7.2%,較去(qu)年同期增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速 8.7%回(hui)落(luo)1.5 個百分(fen)點。 2020 年,電力(li)(li)裝機(ji)預計(ji)達(da)到(dao)(dao) 15.4 億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)繼(ji)續(xu)回(hui)落(luo)。2020 年新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)水(shui)電 1000 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),火(huo)電 4400 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),核電700萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),風(feng)電1800 萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),太(tai)陽能 1000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa),全(quan)國(guo)(guo)裝機(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速為 6.2%,較2019年增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速回(hui)落(luo) 1.0個百分(fen)點。
火電:截止到10 月份,火電裝機(ji)(ji)新增(zeng) 4336萬(wan)千瓦。我們預計 2019 年新增(zeng)火電機(ji)(ji)組約 5000 萬(wan)千瓦,2020年新增(zeng)火電裝機(ji)(ji) 4400萬(wan)千瓦。
水(shui)電(dian)(dian):截止到10月(yue)份,水(shui)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)新增(zeng) 1258萬千(qian)瓦(wa),我(wo)們預計,2019年水(shui)電(dian)(dian)新投(tou)產(chan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量約 1400 萬千(qian)瓦(wa),2020年新增(zeng)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)1000萬千(qian)瓦(wa)。
風(feng)電(dian):截止到10月(yue)份,風(feng)電(dian)裝機(ji)新(xin)增 1384萬千瓦,我(wo)們預計,2019年風(feng)電(dian)新(xin)增裝機(ji)容量(liang)約 1700萬千瓦,2020 年新(xin)增風(feng)電(dian)裝機(ji)1800萬千瓦。
太陽(yang)能發(fa)電(dian):截止到 10 月份,太陽(yang)能發(fa)電(dian)新(xin)增(zeng) 731 萬(wan)千瓦,我們預計,2019 年太陽(yang)能新(xin)增(zeng)裝機(ji)容量約900 萬(wan)千瓦,2020 年新(xin)增(zeng)太陽(yang)能發(fa)電(dian) 1000 萬(wan)千瓦。
核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian):今年,前期(qi)集中建(jian)設的多臺核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)機組投產。截(jie)止到(dao) 10 月(yue)份(fen),核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)新增(zeng)裝機547 萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa),我們預計(ji),2019 年核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)投產規(gui)模為 800 萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa),2020 年新增(zeng)核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)700萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)。
3、1~10 月份全國(guo)累計發(fa)電量 46511 億千瓦時(shi),同(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)低 0.1%,全部機組平(ping)均利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)為(wei)3279小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi),比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)268 小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi),降(jiang)幅為(wei)7.6%。由于社會(hui)用(yong)電需求不振,但 2019-2020 全年(nian)(nian)裝機增速分(fen)別(bie)為(wei) 7.2%和 6.2%,電力(li)供需將呈寬(kuan)松平(ping)衡勢態,總體利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)將有所(suo)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)。我們預計 2019 年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi) 3983小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi),2020年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)為(wei)3730小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)。
水電發電量 8474億千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi),同(tong)(tong)比增長(chang)3.4%,平均利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)為 2989小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi),比去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期減少 114 小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi),下降幅度為 3.7%。我們預(yu)計 2019 年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)水電利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)數為3450小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。在2020 年(nian)(nian),我們假定(ding)全年(nian)(nian)水電利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)為3500 小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。核電發電量 1405 億千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi),同(tong)(tong)比增長(chang) 31.0%,平均利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)為 5853 小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi),比去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期下降 318 小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi),按全年(nian)(nian)計算(suan)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)數可達(da)7000 小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。假定(ding) 2020 年(nian)(nian)核電利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)保持在 7000小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。
風電(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量 1505 億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi),同比增(zeng)長 23.1%,平(ping)均利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)為(wei) 1473 小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi),比去年(nian)同期(qi)減少 33 小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi),按全年(nian)計算利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)可達到 1800 小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。明(ming)年(nian)棄風限電(dian)(dian)問題(ti)進一(yi)步(bu)改(gai)善,我們假設明(ming)年(nian)利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數(shu)為(wei) 2000。 火電(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量 34662 億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi),同比下降(jiang) 2.6%,平(ping)均利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)為(wei) 3563 小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi),比去年(nian)同期(qi)下降(jiang)304 小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi),下降(jiang)幅度為(wei) 7.9%。我們測(ce)算今(jin)年(nian)火電(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數(shu)為(wei) 4388,2020年(nian)為(wei)4015。
二、中國火電行業盈利水平預測
隨(sui)著國(guo)內電(dian)煤價格持(chi)續回落,前三季度(du),火電(dian)企業利(li)潤同比增(zeng)長 12%,毛利(li)率(lv)達到24.3%,度(du)電(dian)利(li)潤0.054元(yuan)/千瓦時,創歷年(nian)(nian)新高。2020年(nian)(nian),利(li)用小時繼續下滑,煤炭價格下降(jiang)(jiang)幅度(du)有限,預計全(quan)行(xing)業利(li)潤總額為 2005億元(yuan),同比下降(jiang)(jiang)約 8.1%。
1、2013 年以(yi)來,國(guo)內(nei)電(dian)煤價(jia)格持續回落,火(huo)電(dian)子行業(ye)(ye)盈(ying)(ying)利(li)不斷提升。盡管(guan)在今年 4 月(yue)份(fen)由于煤電(dian)聯動全(quan)國(guo)火(huo)電(dian)上網電(dian)價(jia)平均下(xia)調 2分(fen)錢(qian),但是由于煤炭價(jia)格同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)大幅下(xia)降(秦(qin)皇島 5500 大卡前(qian)三季度平均價(jia)格同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降 15.85%),火(huo)電(dian)的盈(ying)(ying)利(li)水平仍(reng)然再創新(xin)高(gao)。前(qian)三季度火(huo)電(dian)行業(ye)(ye)營收為 9578 億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降 7%;營業(ye)(ye)成(cheng)本 7249 億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降9%;利(li)潤總額為 1709 億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang) 12%;度電(dian)利(li)潤為 5.4 分(fen),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang) 0.5 分(fen);毛利(li)率為 24.3%,同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.4個百分(fen)點(dian)。
2、建設(she)期產(chan)(chan)能(neng)逐步釋放(fang),未來幾年煤炭產(chan)(chan)能(neng)仍(reng)處高位。由(you)于(yu)之前煤礦固定(ding)資產(chan)(chan)投資處于(yu)較高水平,未來煤炭產(chan)(chan)能(neng)釋放(fang)壓力仍(reng)較大。但受宏(hong)觀經濟增速(su)放(fang)緩(huan)和轉型發展(zhan)影響,煤炭需求(qiu)增長(chang)仍(reng)較為(wei)低迷,對(dui)產(chan)(chan)量增長(chang)形成壓制。
未來(lai)幾年內我國煤炭(tan)的產(chan)能(neng)仍然(ran)居(ju)高不下,供需保持寬(kuan)松(song)。我們預計(ji),2019~16 年, 全國煤炭(tan)產(chan)量將達到 36.4和 37.1億噸,對應增速分別(bie)為-6.0%和 2.0%,全國煤炭(tan)供過于求的局面仍較為嚴重。
2019年火電(dian)行業全年利(li)潤預計(ji)為 2182億(yi)元,同比增長4.9%,再創歷史新高,度(du)電(dian)利(li)潤為5.3 分/千瓦(wa)時,主要原(yuan)因是煤炭價格大幅(fu)下跌。雖然營收(shou)同比下降 5.9%,但主營成本(ben)下降 7.8%,最終導致(zhi)利(li)潤總額增長 4.9%。
2020 年火電(dian)(dian)(dian)行業(ye)全年利(li)潤預計為 2005 億元,同(tong)比下降 8.1%,度(du)(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)潤是 5.1 分(fen),同(tong)比今年的(de)(de)(de) 5.3 分(fen)下降 3.8%。主要原因是由于(yu)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)、核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和太(tai)陽能發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)繼續增長,并(bing)且調度(du)(du)優先(xian)級高(gao)于(yu)火電(dian)(dian)(dian),導(dao)致火電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)利(li)用小時數下降 8.5%,大于(yu)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)4.6%的(de)(de)(de)增長幅(fu)度(du)(du),因此營收同(tong)比下降 4.0%,下降幅(fu)度(du)(du)大于(yu)營業(ye)成本3.0%的(de)(de)(de)下降幅(fu)度(du)(du),最終導(dao)致利(li)潤總(zong)額下降 8.1%。
由于今(jin)年煤炭價(jia)格下(xia)(xia)跌幅度(du)較大,火電上網(wang)電價(jia)有可能繼續下(xia)(xia)調。如果煤價(jia)和利用小時(shi)數不變,電價(jia)下(xia)(xia)調 3%時(shi),火電行業(ye)利潤總額(e)將下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang) 17%,下(xia)(xia)調 5%時(shi),火電行業(ye)利潤總額(e)將下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang) 29%。
三、中國水電行業盈利水平預測
今(jin)年前 10 個(ge)月份總體上來(lai)水偏枯。前三季(ji)度(du)水電利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)時數累計(ji)同(tong)比(bi)減(jian)少 84 小(xiao)時,前 10 個(ge)月份累計(ji)同(tong)比(bi)減(jian)少 114 小(xiao)時,預(yu)計(ji)今(jin)年全(quan)年水電利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)時為 3450 小(xiao)時。預(yu)計(ji)在2020年來(lai)水達到常年平(ping)均水平(ping),全(quan)年利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)時數為3500 小(xiao)時。
截止(zhi)到 10月份,水(shui)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)新(xin)增(zeng)1258 萬千(qian)瓦,增(zeng)幅(fu)為(wei)4.2%。由于目前(qian)(qian)還沒(mei)法獲取全(quan)年數據(ju),我們從Wind中找(zhao)到今年前(qian)(qian)三季度(du)的數據(ju)。受益于水(shui)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)的增(zeng)長,今年前(qian)(qian)三季度(du)水(shui)電行業實現利潤(run)(run)總額600億元, 與去年前(qian)(qian)三季度(du)同比增(zeng)長5%,實現毛利率(lv) 48%,同比下(xia)降2 個(ge)百分點,度(du)電利潤(run)(run)8.0分。
目前我國啟動(dong)了新一輪(lun)電(dian)力(li)體制改革,放開發電(dian)側和售電(dian)側的競(jing)爭,水(shui)電(dian)作(zuo)為最具競(jing)爭力(li)的清潔能源(yuan),在電(dian)價(jia)市(shi)場化的過程中將明顯受益。
2014 年我國水電上網(wang)(wang)平均電價(jia)為 0.302 元/千(qian)瓦時,是我國各(ge)能源(yuan)發電電價(jia)水平最低的,較燃煤電廠(chang)平均上網(wang)(wang)電價(jia)低 0.092 元/千(qian)瓦時,隨著改革力度的加大,電力市場化推(tui)進,水電競價(jia)上網(wang)(wang)優勢(shi)明顯,電價(jia)水平提升空間巨大。
水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)與火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)不同,由于(yu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)調(diao)度優(you)先級高于(yu)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian),因此(ci)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的利用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時受經(jing)濟影響程度比火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)小(xiao),主要(yao)是由當(dang)年來水(shui)情況決定。水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的成(cheng)本(ben)主要(yao)由大壩和水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機組的折舊以(yi)及(ji)財務費用(yong)(yong)構(gou)成(cheng),而火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)還需(xu)要(yao)花費大量費用(yong)(yong)采購煤炭。前三(san)季(ji)度,水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的度電(dian)(dian)(dian)營業成(cheng)本(ben)為(wei) 0.15 元(yuan)/千瓦時,遠(yuan)低于(yu)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的同期(qi)度電(dian)(dian)(dian)營業成(cheng)本(ben) 0.23 元(yuan)/千瓦時。
2019年,水電(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)預(yu)(yu)計 680億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)。2019年水電(dian)(dian)(dian)行業利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)總額預(yu)(yu)計達(da)到680億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),同比增長1.3%,毛利(li)(li)率為(wei)(wei) 45.2%,度電(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)為(wei)(wei)0.064 元(yuan)(yuan)/千瓦(wa)時。 2020年,水電(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)預(yu)(yu)計 719億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)。2020年水電(dian)(dian)(dian)行業利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)總額預(yu)(yu)計達(da)到719億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan),同比增長5.7%,毛利(li)(li)率為(wei)(wei) 46.0%,度電(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)為(wei)(wei)0.064 元(yuan)(yuan)/千瓦(wa)時。 另外,我們還(huan)測(ce)算(suan)了水電(dian)(dian)(dian)行業盈(ying)利(li)(li)敏感(gan)性,當電(dian)(dian)(dian)價提高 1%,盈(ying)利(li)(li)增加 4.0%;當利(li)(li)用小時提高 1%,利(li)(li)潤(run)(run)(run)增加3.8%,兩者對盈(ying)利(li)(li)的影響比例接近1:1。
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