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據(ju)全國農業技術推(tui)廣服務(wu)中心資料，2013年玉米制種(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)435萬(wan)畝(mu)，產種(zhong)量(liang)15.7億(yi)(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，加(jia)上壓庫(ku)5.5億(yi)(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，2014年可供(gong)種(zhong)21.2億(yi)(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)。 2014年制種(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)294萬(wan)畝(mu)，產種(zhong)10.1億(yi)(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，加(jia)上壓庫(ku)9.9億(yi)(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，2015年可供(gong)種(zhong)20.0億(yi)(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，預計用種(zhong)量(liang)11億(yi)(yi)～12億(yi)(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，仍然壓庫(ku)8 億(yi)(yi)～9億(yi)(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)。因為存在私(si)繁(fan)濫制，實際(ji)制種(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)和(he)超繁(fan)種(zhong)子要大于此數。例如甘肅省(sheng)張掖市年初(chu)報告落實制種(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)60萬(wan)畝(mu)，最后收獲時達到100多萬(wan)畝(mu)。超繁(fan)的種(zhong)子在市場游蕩(dang)，積(ji)(ji)沙成塔。

新(xin)(xin)審(shen)(shen)(shen)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)持(chi)續增加是(shi)(shi)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)居(ju)高(gao)不(bu)下的(de)重(zhong)要原因。以2014年(nian)(nian)審(shen)(shen)(shen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)玉米品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為例(li)，國家審(shen)(shen)(shen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)29個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)，黑龍江省審(shen)(shen)(shen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)48個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)，吉林省審(shen)(shen)(shen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)46個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)，遼寧省審(shen)(shen)(shen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)38 個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)，內蒙古審(shen)(shen)(shen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)39個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)，河北省審(shen)(shen)(shen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)37個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)，山東(dong)省審(shen)(shen)(shen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)16個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)，河南省審(shen)(shen)(shen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)12個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)。僅此7省區一年(nian)(nian)審(shen)(shen)(shen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)200多個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)，全國兩三年(nian)(nian)累計審(shen)(shen)(shen)定(ding)(ding)(ding)(ding)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)就有幾百上千個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)，不(bu)論是(shi)(shi)自育(yu)還是(shi)(shi)新(xin)(xin)購品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，老板都(dou)要千方百計繁種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)進入(ru)市(shi)場，壓縮制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)的(de)可能(neng)性很小(xiao)，庫存(cun)高(gao)企的(de)局面(mian)難以改變，也不(bu)必擔心西北制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)基地會“撂荒”。

2015年(nian)(nian)是(shi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子行(xing)業遭(zao)遇(yu)高(gao)庫存的(de)(de)第三個年(nian)(nian)頭。從(cong)(cong)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)看(kan)，積壓(ya)(ya)最多的(de)(de)依然是(shi)吉(ji)祥1號、鄭單(dan)958等。吉(ji)祥1號私繁面積基(ji)本(ben)控制(zhi)(zhi)，鄭單(dan)958制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積下降80%，還有(you)的(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下降60%。從(cong)(cong)企業看(kan)，玉米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子壓(ya)(ya)庫集中在大公(gong)司(si)(si)，一(yi)些主營鄭單(dan)958品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)公(gong)司(si)(si)一(yi)般(ban)壓(ya)(ya)庫量(liang)(liang)占總量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)四(si)成到五成，個別的(de)(de)多達六成。如北京德農公(gong)司(si)(si)鄭單(dan)958余種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)(liang)從(cong)(cong)9 000萬(wan)(wan)減至6 000萬(wan)(wan)再減至4 000萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤;河南金博士公(gong)司(si)(si)往年(nian)(nian)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)12萬(wan)(wan)畝，2013年(nian)(nian)沒有(you)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，2014年(nian)(nian)僅制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1萬(wan)(wan)畝。但新(xin)審定品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、新(xin)購產權品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積依然增加(jia)。庫存高(gao)企雖不至于使企業陷入絕境，但流動資金周轉(zhuan)困難，倉儲運輸(shu)費用(yong)額外增加(jia)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子質量(liang)(liang)下降或報廢，銷售贏(ying)利(li)嚴重下滑，將(jiang)使企業遭(zao)遇(yu)萬(wan)(wan)劫不復的(de)(de)困境。

連續三年愈演愈烈的種子過剩形勢，導致很多企業持續深陷銷售低谷，如果沒有戰略性和方向性的措施，種子市場將逃不脫周期性的危機。更多玉米種子2015-2020年(nian)中(zhong)國玉米種子市場現狀及投(tou)資分析(xi)報告》